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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Tuesday, June 20, 2006

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 1.0 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in April.

  • The leading index increased sharply again in April. Stock prices and oil prices continued to be the main contributors to the increase in the leading index this month. The leading index continued to grow at about a 4.0 percent annual rate, but this is still well below the rapid growth through the end of the third quarter of 2005. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators continued to be somewhat more widespread in recent months.
  • The coincident index increased slightly again in April. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 6.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2006, up from the 4.1 percent average rate over the previous two quarters. Despite short-term volatility, the recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy is likely to grow moderately in the near term

LEADING INDICATORS.Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component*, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in April.

With the 1.0 percent increase in April, the leading index now stands at 159.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.2 percent in March and declined 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.0 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the (inverted) unemployment rate, industrial production, and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)*. Retail sales*declined in April.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in April, the coincident index now stands at 117.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in March and declined 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 0.3 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. June 19, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales, number of employees, and unemployment rate.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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