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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Friday, January 20, 2006

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico declined 0.3 percent, while the coincident index remained unchanged in November.

  • The leading index declined in November following five consecutive gains. The drop in oil prices in November was the main contributor to this month’s weakness. However, the strength among the leading indicators has been somewhat more widespread in recent months. Despite the small decline in November, the leading index has been growing rapidly in recent months, well above the 3.0 to 4.0 percent rate reached in early 2005.
  • The coincident index was unchanged in November, but it is still on a steady upward trend since late 2004. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 4.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005, up from a 1.7 percent average rate in the first half of the year. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy should continue to grow at a strong rate in the near term.

Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the (inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, and the industrial production construction component* decreased in November.

With the 0.3 percent decline in November, the leading index now stands at 156.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 5.4 percent, with all six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors were retail sales* and the (inverted) unemployment rate. Number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production declined in November.

Holding steady in November, the coincident index now stands at 116.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.9 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. January 20, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES:Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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