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Released: Monday, December 19, 2005

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico remained unchanged, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in October.

  • The leading index was unchanged in October following four consecutive gains. Oil prices and stock prices were the main contributors to this month’s weakness in the leading index, but in recent months the strengths among the leading indicators were relatively more widespread. Despite no change in October, the leading index continued to grow at about a 10.0 to 11.0 percent annual rate in recent months, well above the 3.0 to 4.0 percent rate reached in early 2005.
  • The coincident index increased again in October, and it has been on a steady upward trend since late 2004. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 4.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005 from a 1.7 percent average rate in the first half of the year. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that strong economic growth should persist in the near term.

Leading Indicators. of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in October. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, the industrial production construction component*, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Net insufficient inventories and the (inverted) federal funds rate increased in October.

Holding steady in October, the leading index now stands at 156.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in September and increased 1.4 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 5.1 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*. The (inverted) unemployment rate declined in October.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 116.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.0 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

Data Availability. data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. December 15, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES:Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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