Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, November 17, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index remained unchanged in September.
- The leading index increased again in September for the fourth consecutive month. Oil prices and stock prices continue to be the main contributors to the recent large gains in the leading index, more than offsetting some weakness in the inventories and real exchange rate components. With this month’s gain, the growth of the leading index has picked up to about a 10.0 to 11.0 percent annual rate in recent months, but the strengths and the weaknesses among the leading indicators continue to be well balanced.
- The coincident index was unchanged in September, and it has been on a flat to slightly rising trend since late 2004. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 5.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005 from a negative 2.5 percent rate in the first quarter. The continued strength of the leading index in recent months suggests that strong economic growth should persist in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are stock prices, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds. The (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, and the industrial production construction component* rate declined in September.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, the leading index now stands at 156.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.4 percent in August and increased 0.8 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 6.5 percent, with all six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales*. Industrial production and the (inverted) unemployment rate declined in September.
Holding steady in September, the coincident index now stands at 116.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and was unchanged in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.7 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. November 16, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.