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Released: Friday, October 21, 2005

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 1.2 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in August.

  • The leading index increased sharply again in August following three large gains in the last five months. Despite short-term volatility, the growth of the leading index has picked up to about a 9.0 to 10.0 percent annual rate in recent months, with oil prices continuing to be the main contributor to the sharp pick up in the leading index. In addition, the strengths and the weaknesses among the leading indicators continued to be well balanced.
  • The coincident index increased slightly in August, keeping it on a flat to slightly rising trend since late 2004. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 5.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005 from a negative 2.5 percent rate in the first quarter. The improvement of the leading index in recent months suggests that strong economic growth should continue in the near term.

Leading Indicators. Two of the six components that make up the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners'' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and net insufficient inventories. Stock prices and the (inverted) real exchange rate declined, while the industrial production construction component* and the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in August.

With the increase of 1.2 percent in August, the leading index now stands at 155.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in July and increased 2.6 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 5.7 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors were the (inverted) unemployment rate and industrial production. Retail sales* declined, while number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) remained unchanged in August.

With the 0.1 percent increase in August, the coincident index now stands at 116.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in July and increased 0.3 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.3 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. October 20, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES:Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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