Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, September 20, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.7 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in July.
- The leading index increased again in July following a large gain in June. Oil prices as well as stock prices continue to be the main contributors to the increase in July. Despite short-term volatility, the growth of the leading index has picked up to about a 7.0 to 8.0 percent annual rate in recent months.
- At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 5.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005 from a negative 2.5 percent rate in the first quarter. The sharp pick up in the growth rate of the leading index this year is mostly due to increasing oil prices, but the strength among the components of the leading index is still somewhat widespread. Despite some volatility, the behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that this strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component* declined, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in July.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 153.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 2.6 percent in June and declined 0.5 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 4.1 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors were retail sales* and the (inverted) unemployment rate. Industrial production and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) declined in July.
With the 0.1 percent increase in July, the coincident index now stands at 116.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in June and increased 0.1 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. September 19, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:* Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.