Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, August 19, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 2.6 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in June.
- The leading index increased sharply in June after declining in May. Although oil prices and inventories are the main contributors to the large gain in June, the strength among leading indicators has become more widespread in recent months. Despite short-term volatility, the growth in the leading index has picked up to about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months.
- At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 5.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005 from a negative 2.5 percent rate in the first quarter. The strength in the leading index in recent months suggests that this strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators.All six components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are net insufficient inventories, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial production construction component*, stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the (inverted) federal funds rate.
With the increase of 2.6 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 152.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in May and increased 1.7 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 4.0 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors were industrial production and the (inverted) unemployment rate. Number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) declined, while retail sales* remained unchanged in June.
With the 0.3 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 116.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.1 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. August 17, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:* Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.