Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, July 15, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.2 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in May.
- The leading index fell slightly in May, but April’s small increase was revised up to a large increase as actual data for the construction component of industrial production became available. As a result, the growth in the leading index has picked up to about a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, and the strength among the leading indicators has also become somewhat more widespread.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased in May for the second consecutive month after declining slightly in the first quarter. At the same time, real GDP declined at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2005, down from 4.8 percent average growth in 2004. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy should grow again in the near term, but at a more sluggish rate than in 2004.
Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are net insufficient inventories, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. The industrial production construction component*, the US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds rate declined in May.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 148.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.6 percent in April and declined 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.1 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in May. The negative contributors were the (inverted) unemployment rate and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Industrial production and retail sales* increased in May.
With the 0.1 percent increase in May, the coincident index now stands at 115.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in April and declined 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index declined 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. July 14, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:* Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.