Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, April 15, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.1 percent, and the coincident index was unchanged in February.
- The leading index increased slightly in February following a large gain in January, and as a result, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to fluctuate around a 3.0-4.0 percent annual rate. This is well below the peak growth rate in late 2003 and early 2004, but the strength among the leading indicators continues to be somewhat widespread.
- Real GDP growth has been fluctuating around a 4.5 to 5.0 percent average annual rate in the last five quarters, including 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004. The slower growth rate of the leading index in the last six months suggests that economic growth will continue in the near term, but at a slower rate than in recent quarters.
Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Net insufficient inventories and the (inverted) federal funds rate declined, while the industrial production construction component* was unchanged in February.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, the leading index now stands at 147.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in January and decreased 0.5 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.7 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales. Industrial production and the (inverted) unemployment rate decreased in February.
Holding steady in February, the coincident index now stands at 115.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in January and was unchanged in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 14, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:* Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.