Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 14, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico held steady and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in November.
- The leading index was unchanged in November following a sharp increase in October, and there were also small upward revisions to September and October. The growth rate of the leading index has picked up in recent months after a moderate slowdown in the second quarter of 2004 (and the strength has become more widespread), but the current growth rate is still below the peak reached in early 2004.
- The coincident index increased again in November, and has been on a flat to slightly rising trend since the beginning of 2004. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 2.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2004, down from a 4.0 percent average rate over the previous four quarters. The pickup in the growth rate of the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth should strengthen in the near term from the third quarter’s sluggish pace.
Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial production construction component*, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. Stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and net insufficient inventories increased in November.
Holding steady in November, the leading index now stands at 147.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.4 percent in October and increased 0.5 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 3.3 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), the (inverted) unemployment rate, and retail sales*. Industrial production declined in November.
With the 0.3 percent increase in November, the coincident index now stands at 116.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. January 13, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.