Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, October 15, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.6 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in August.
- The leading index increased in August, but an increase in oil prices was the major reason for the gain. Despite this month's increase, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to slow from its peak earlier this year, and its strength has become somewhat less widespread.
- The coincident index declined in August, but it is still on a flat to slightly rising trend. At the same time, however, real GDP increased at almost a 5.0 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2004. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that economic growth will continue for the remainder of 2004, but at a more moderate rate than in the first half of the year.
Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component*, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and stock prices increased in August.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in August, the leading index now stands at 145.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.6 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 2.5 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors were industrial production and retail sales*. The (inverted) unemployment rate and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) declined in August.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in August, the coincident index now stands at 115.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in both July and June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. October 14, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.