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Released: Friday, August 13, 2004

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in June.

  • The leading index fell again in June following a large decline in May, with oil prices and a survey of inventories as the major contributors to June's weakness. The growth rate of the leading index has slowed in recent months and the weakness has become more widespread, but it is too soon to conclude that the upward trend underway since the second quarter of 2003 has ended.
  • The coincident index increased again in June, and real GDP has increased at almost a 6.0 percent average annual rate in the last two quarters for which data are available (the fourth quarter of 2003 and first quarter of 2004). The slowdown in the growth of the leading index in recent months is signaling that the economy should continue growing, but more slowly than it did through the first quarter of 2004.

Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The industrial production construction component*, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and stock prices increased in June.

With the 0.4 percent decrease in June, the leading index now stands at 142.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 1.0 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 4.3 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors were industrial production, the (inverted) unemployment rate, and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales* declined in June

With the 0.1 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 115.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in both May and April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. August 12, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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