Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, July 16, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 1.0 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in May.
- The leading index fell sharply in May following seven consecutive gains, with the real exchange rate and a survey of inventories the major contributors to this month's weakness. It is unlikely that May's decline ends the current upward trend in the leading index, but there is some risk that the growth rate of the leading index is slowing. The coincident index increased again in May, keeping it on a slightly rising trend.
- Real GDP growth picked up to almost a 6.0 percent average annual rate in the last two quarters for which data are available (the fourth quarter of 2003 and first quarter of 2004). The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that real GDP will continue increasing at or somewhat below its recent rate.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in May. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are the (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component*, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. Stock prices and US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil increased in May.
With the 1.0 percent decrease in May, the leading index now stands at 141.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and increased 1.1 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 4.7 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors were industrial production, the (inverted) unemployment rate, and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales* declined in May.
With the 0.3 percent increase in May, the coincident index now stands at 115.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.8 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. July 14, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
Effective with the July 16, 2004 release, a programming error in the calculation of the leading index has been corrected. Although the level of the index has changed, its cyclical behavior was not affected by either the calculation error or its correction.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.