Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, June 18, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in April.
- The leading index fell slightly in April following six consecutive gains, with the real exchange rate and stock prices being the major contributors to this month's weakness. The growth rate of the leading index has been fluctuating around a 3.5 percent average annual rate since September 2003, and growth has continued to be strong and widespread so far this year. The coincident index increased again in April, keeping it on a flat to slightly rising trend.
- Consistent with the improving growth rate of the leading index, real GDP growth picked up to a 5.9 percent average annual rate over the last two quarters (although GDP growth continues to be volatile from quarter to quarter). The continued upward trend in the leading index suggests that the recent rate of economic growth is likely to persist in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are net insufficient inventories, US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The (inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, and the industrial production construction component* declined in April.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in April, the leading index now stands at 108.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.8 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors were industrial production, the (inverted) unemployment rate, the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales*.
With the 0.3 percent increase in April, the coincident index now stands at 113.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and held steady in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. June 17, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production and retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.