Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, May 14, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.3 percent in March.
- The leading index increased again in March for the sixth consecutive month. The leading index has increased at about a 4.0 percent annual rate over this period and the strength has continued to be widespread. The coincident index fell slightly in March, and has continued to fluctuate around a flat trend.
- Consistent with the improving growth rate of the leading index, real GDP growth picked up to a 2.8 percent annual rate in the second half of 2003 (although GDP growth has continued to be extremely volatile from quarter to quarter). The continued strength in the leading index suggests some further improvement in the rate of economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in March. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are net insufficient inventories, US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and stock prices. The industrial production construction component*, the (inverted) federal funds rate, and the (inverted) real exchange rate declined in March.
With the 0.3 percent increase in March, the leading index now stands at 108.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in both February and January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.1 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors were the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales*. Industrial production and the (inverted) unemployment rate declined in March.
With the 0.3 percent decline in March, the coincident index now stands at 112.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index held steady in February and decreased 0.3 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index remained unchanged, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. May 12, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production and retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.