Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, April 16, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.2 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in February.
- The leading index increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, and has increased at about a 3.5 percent annual rate from the most recent low in September 2003. The strength in the leading index has been widespread in recent months. The coincident index was unchanged in February, and continues to fluctuate around a flat trend.
- While real GDP has been extremely volatile from quarter to quarter, the average growth rate has been rising since the second half of 2002 -- to a 2.8 percent annual rate in the second half of 2003. This has been consistent with the improving growth rate of the leading index, which is still signaling some further improvement in the rate of economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are stock prices, US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and net insufficient inventories. The (inverted) real exchange rate, the (inverted) federal funds rate, and the industrial production construction component* declined in February.
With the 0.2 percent increase in February, the leading index now stands at 107.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in January and increased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.1 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors were the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales*. Industrial production and the (inverted) unemployment rate declined in February.
Holding steady in February, the coincident index now stands at 113.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 0.1 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 15, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.