Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, October 16, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.2 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.4 percent in August.
- The leading index fell slightly in August, the first decline since March, but it is too early to say if this decline marks the end of the gradual upturn in the leading index since late 2002.
- More generally, there has been no definitive trend in the leading index over the past year and a half. Instead, the leading index has alternated over short periods between slight increases (in the first half of 2002, and so far this year) and slight declines (in the second half of 2002).
- In turn, the economy has fluctuated between moderate growth in early 2002 and moderate declines since then. The slight upturn in the leading index so far this year suggests another period of moderate economic growth, but this would be short lived if August marks the beginning of another downturn in the leading index.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributor to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are net insufficient inventories, real exchange rate, and the industrial production construction component*. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are stock prices, US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds rate.
The leading index now stands at 106.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.2 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in August. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one – are the (inverted) unemployment rate, industrial production, and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales* remained unchanged in August.
With the 0.4 percent decline in August, the coincident index now stands at 112.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in July and decreased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (MEX) October 15, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component and CPI deflator for calculating real exchange rate. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.