Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, September 19, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.2 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in July.
- The leading index increased moderately again in July, and the pickup over the last four months has been widespread. The leading index has been increasing gradually so far this year after falling slightly late last year.
- Reflecting weakness in its labor-market components, the coincident index declined again in July. However, the coincident index has picked up slightly from its recent low in January, and more generally, the coincident index has been fluctuating around a flat trend for about a year and a half.
- Real GDP growth declined slightly over the last several quarters, but the recent improvement in the leading index suggests that these declines will not persist and that economic growth is likely to pick up in the near term.
Leading Indicators. One of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in July. The negative contributor to the index was the industrial production construction component*. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are stock prices, US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, real exchange rate, and the (inverted) federal funds rate.
The leading index now stands at 106.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in June and increased 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in July. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one – are the (inverted) unemployment rate and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are industrial production and retail sales*.
The coincident index now stands at 113.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in June and increased 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (MEX) September 17, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.