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Released: Monday, August 18, 2003

Due to last week’s Blackout, distribution of the Mexico release has been delayed. The release will not be immediately available on the Global Business Cycle Indicators Website.

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in June.

  • The leading index increased for the third consecutive month in June, and the pick up has become more widespread. The leading index has increased slightly over the last six months after falling slightly in the second half of last year. The six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of components that are rising, has remained above 50 percent since April.
  • The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, fell slightly in June. However, the coincident index has been increasing gradually so far this year after falling slightly in the second half of 2002. In addition, the six-month diffusion index picked up to 75 percent in June from 37.5 percent last December.
  • The leading index is signaling a slight pick up in economic activity in the near term. However, it is too soon to know if this is the beginning of a sustained upturn.

Leading Indicators. Two of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index – from the larger negative contributor to the smaller one – are the inverted real exchange rate and net insufficient inventories. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, and industrial production construction component. The contribution of the inverted federal funds rate remained flat.

The leading index now stands at 106.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.5 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one – are the inverted unemployment rate, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales. Industrial Production remained unchanged.

The coincident index now stands at 113.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and was flat in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. (MEX) August 14, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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