Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, July 16, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in May.
- The leading index increased over the last two months despite significant declines in oil prices since February. With these two consecutive monthly increases the leading index has now moved above the flat trend it has been on since late last year.
- Strength is continuing to build in the leading index as reflected by three consecutive increases in the six-month growth rate. The six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the leading index components that are rising, has also picked up to 91.7 percent from 0.0 percent late last year.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, was once again unchanged. The recent increases in the leading index (despite falling oil prices) suggest that the negative economic growth in the last several quarters is not likely to persist, but no significant strength is yet being signaled.
Leading Indicators. Two of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in May. The negative contributors to the index – from the larger negative contributor to the smaller one – are U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and industrial production-construction component. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are the real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, the federal funds rate, and stock prices.
The leading index now stands at 106.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and decreased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.9 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 91.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index – from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one – are industrial production and the inverted unemployment rate. The negative contributor to the index was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales remained unchanged.
The coincident index now stands at 113.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was flat in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index was unchanged, with one of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 37.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. (MEX) July 14, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales and industrial production.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.