Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, May 15, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico remained unchanged and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in March.
- A sharp decline in oil prices kept the leading index from increasing in March, following three months when rising oil prices kept the leading index from falling. In general, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend, which is consistent with a trend rate of economic growth.
- The six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the leading index components that are rising, increased to 50.0 percent for the last 6 months, up from 0 percent last November. This is also consistent with a neutral signal from the leading indicators.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in March. This increase places the coincident index back on a flat trend since the third quarter of 2002.
Leading Indicators. One of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in March. The negative contributor to the index is the U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are net insufficient inventories and the real exchange rate. Industrial production-construction component*, stock prices, and the federal funds rate were unchanged.
The leading index now stands at 105.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was flat in February and decreased 0.2 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 0.2 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are industrial production, the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales*. The negative contributor to the index was the inverted unemployment rate.
With the latest increase, the coincident index now stands at 113.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was flat in February and decreased 0.2 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 0.2 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. (MEX) May 13, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.