Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, April 16, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that Mexico's leading index increased 0.2 percent and the coincident index remained flat in February.
- The price for crude oil once again contributed significantly to this month's increase in the leading index. Rising oil prices have been boosting the leading index since December.
- The six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the leading index components that are rising, has been below 50 percent since October, signaling the potential for more widespread weakness in the economy.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, registered no change in February but has been declining gradually since mid-2002. In all, more widespread weakness in the leading index, along with the downward trend in the coincident, suggests a lack of momentum in 2003.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in February. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the inverted real exchange rate, inverted federal funds rate, and stock prices. The positive contributors to the index - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are U.S. refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, industrial production-construction component*, and net insufficient inventories.
With this month's increase, the leading index now stands at 106.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in January and increased 0.6 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors to the index - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), retail sales*, and the inverted unemployment rate. The negative contributor to the index was industrial production.
The coincident index now stands at 112.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in January and also decreased 0.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 0.5 percent, with three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 3 P.M. (MEX) April 14, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.