Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, March 13, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that Mexico's leading index remained flat while the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent in January.
- The leading index has been essentially flat or declining over recent months. The most recent volatility in the index can be attributed to the cost for crude oil, which has increased significantly since November.
- The diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the leading index components that are rising, is still well below 50 percent. In all, the widespread weakness in the leading index suggests a lack of momentum in economic activity going into 2003.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, continues on its downward trend, decreasing 0.2 percent in January. This weakness is also widespread, with the six-month diffusion index remaining at or below 50 percent for the last six months.
Leading Indicators. Five of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in January. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are the inverted real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, stock prices, inverted federal funds rate, and the construction component of industrial production*. The positive contributor to the index was U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil.
With this month’s increase, the leading index stands at 105.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in December and was unchanged in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 0.1 percent, with one of the components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. One of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributor to the index was retail sales*. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are the inverted unemployment rate, industrial production*, and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries).
The coincident index now stands at 112.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in December and decreased 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 0.6 percent, with one component increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. (MEX) March 11, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales and industrial production.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.