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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Friday, February 14, 2003

The Conference Board announced today that Mexico's leading index increased 0.5 percent in December while the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent.

  • The leading index rose for the first time since May. This latest increase halts the downward trend in the six-month growth rate, which appears to have bottomed out in November after steadily declining since the beginning of the year.
  • However, without the recent volatility in the cost for crude oil, the leading index would have been essentially flat over the last two months. Furthermore, the diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the leading index components that are rising, is still well below 50 percent. In all, this suggests a lack of momentum for strong growth in the beginning of 2003.
  • The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, continues on its downward trend, decreasing 0.2 percent in December. This weakness is also widespread, with the six-month diffusion index remaining below 50 percent for the last three months.

LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in December. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are net insufficient inventories, the construction component of industrial production*, and stock prices. The positive contributors to the index - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one - are the U.S. refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the inverted real exchange rate. The inverted federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With this month's increase, the leading index now stands at 105.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in November and declined 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with two of the components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS
One of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributor to the index was the inverted unemployment rate. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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