Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 14, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that Mexico's leading index decreased by 0.2 percent in November while the coincident index remained unchanged.
- The leading index continued on its downward trend in November, marking the seventh consecutive month that the index has been either flat or declining. While stock prices were up again for the second month in a row, much of the decline this month was due to a sharp drop in US Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, was flat in November. Employment continues to consistently be the strongest factor in the index, up for the third consecutive month.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the construction component of industrial production*, and the inverted real exchange rate. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are stock prices, net insufficient inventories, and the inverted federal funds rate.
With this month’s decline, the leading index now stands at 105.1 (1990=100). This index declined 0.1 percent in October and declined 0.5 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 0.8 percent, with none of the components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. One of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributor to the index was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the inverted unemployment rate, industrial production, and retail sales*.
The coincident index now stands at 113.2 (1990=100). This index increased 0.3 percent in October and decreased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with one component increasing. (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 12 P.M. (MEX) January 10, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component and net insufficient inventories which. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales and industrial production.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.