Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, November 21, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that Mexico's leading index decreased by 0.3 percent in September and the coincident index decreased by 0.4 percent.
- The decline in the leading index during September was primarily a result of weakness in its financial components. Although the index is presently 1.7 percent higher than its November 2001 level, it has not posted any gains since April 2002.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, dropped in September for the third consecutive month. Most of September’s decline resulted from significant weakness in industrial production and rising unemployment.
- Taken together, the indexes point to a period of sluggish recovery for the Mexican economy in the first half of 2003.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in September. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, the inverted real exchange rate, U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the inverted federal funds rate. Net insufficient inventories* and the construction component of industrial production* were unchanged in September.
The leading index now stands at 105.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the leading index was unchanged in August and July. During the six-month span through September, the index decreased 0.1 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in September. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - industrial production, the unemployment rate and retail sales*. The number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) increased.
The coincident index now stands at 112.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in August and decreased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.2 percent, with two components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 12 P.M. (MEX) November 19, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component and net insufficient inventories. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.