Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, July 15, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in May.
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent in May, primarily a result of sharp declines in the value of the US dollar and Mexican equity prices. However, decreasing inventory levels and increasing oil prices positively impacted the leading index, which is still 2.0 percent above its most recent low, which occurred in November 2001.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.1 percent in May, which marks its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Recent strength in the coincident index can be primarily attributed to industrial production, which has rebounded strongly since March. The coincident index is 1.0 percent above its most recent low, which occurred in January 2002.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in May. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the inverted real exchange rate, stock prices, the construction component of industrial production*, and the inverted federal funds rate. The positive contributors to the index - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are net insufficient inventories and U.S. refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil.
The leading index now stands at 105.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the leading index increased 0.5 percent in April and 0.6 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 2.0 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in May. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the inverted unemployment rate, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales*. Industrial production was the only component to increase in May.
The coincident index now stands at 113.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in April and March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 2 P.M. (MEX) July 16, 2002. Some series areestimated as noted below.
*NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.