Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, September 19, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico remained unchanged and the coincident index decreased 0.3 percent in July.
- The leading index has stagnated in recent months, with stock prices being the primary reason for weakness in July. In addition, a tightening of monetary policy stemming from concern over increasing inflationary pressures has weighed down the leading index.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, declined in July for the first time in six months. Most of this weakness was the result of declining overall industrial activity and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.
Leading Indicators. Two of the six components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors to the index - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are U.S. refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and net insufficient inventories. Two of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in July. The negative contributors to the index - from the larger negative contributor to the smaller - are stock prices and the inverted real exchange rate. The construction component of industrial production* and the inverted federal funds rate were both unchanged in July.
The leading index now stands at 105.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the leading index was unchanged in June and decreased 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.9 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are industrial production, the unemployment rate and retail sales*. The only positivecontributor was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries).
The coincident index now stands at 113.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in June and 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, theindex increased 1.2 percent, with three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 4 P.M. (MEX) September 17, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.