Global Business Cycle Indicators
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|Benchmark Revisions - January 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, January 27, 2014
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in November.
- Gains from the yield spread, building approvals, and money supply more than offset the negative contribution from stock prices. Between May and November 2013, the leading economic index increased 1.0 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 1.5 percent (about a 3.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in November. Over the last six months, the coincident economic index grew 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate), about the same rate of increase between November 2012 and May 2013. The strengths among the coincident indicators remained more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2013, down from 2.9 percent growth (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI for Australia increased in November for the third consecutive month, but its six-month growth rate moderated slightly compared to the first half of 2013. Meanwhile, the CEI continued to rise, and its six-month growth has been fairly stable. Taken together, the relatively steady growth in both the LEI and CEI suggest that the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2014, but the pace of growth is unlikely to accelerate.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, building approvals, money supply*, the sales to inventories ratio*, gross operating surplus*, and rural goods exports. Share prices declined in November.
With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 126.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the leading economic index increased 1.0 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in November. The increases – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in retail trade, employed persons, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production*.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 123.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in both October and September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident economic index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 6 P.M. ET on January 23,2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.