Global Business Cycle Indicators
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|Benchmark Revisions - January 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, July 17, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) both remained unchanged in May.
- The Conference Board LEI for Australia was unchanged in May following small gains in the previous four months. Money supply and building approvals continued to increase in May, but those gains were offset by a large negative contribution from stock prices. Between November 2012 and May 2013, the leading economic index increased 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate), reversing the decline of 0.8 percent (about a -1.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, also remained unchanged in May. The coincident economic index grew by 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) between November 2012 and May 2013, up from a 0.1 percent increase (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all the coincident indicators rising over the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2013, about the same rate as in the fourth quarter of 2012.
- Despite no change in May, the LEI for Australia has been increasing at a modest pace since the beginning of 2013 and its six-month growth has picked up compared to the second half of last year. Meanwhile, the six-month grow rate in the CEI has also accelerated in the first five months of this year, with all its components advancing. Taken together, the recent acceleration in the growth of the LEI and CEI suggests that the current rate of economic expansion is likely to continue, and could even pick up slightly in the coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in May. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were money supply*, building approvals, gross operating surplus*, rural goods exports, and yield spread. Share prices and the sales to inventories ratio* declined in May.
Holding steady in May, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 123.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the leading economic index increased 1.0 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in May. The increases — in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller — occurred in household gross disposable income* and industrial production*. Retail trade declined, while employed persons remained unchanged in May.
Holding steady in May, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 122.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent, with all four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on July 17, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.