Global Business Cycle Indicators
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|Benchmark Revisions - January 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, January 23, 2012
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Australia fell in November following an increase in October. A large decline in building approvals more than offset positive contributions from the sales to inventory ratio* and gross operating surplus (private nonfinancial corporations)* this month. With the decline in November, the leading economic index increased 1.7 percent (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) over the last six months, slower than the 3.9 percent rate (about an 8.0 percent annual rate) reached between February and August 2011. Nevertheless, the strengths among the leading indicators have been slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in November. Between May and November 2011, the coincident economic index increased by 1.4 percent (about a 2.9 percent annual rate), up from the decline of 0.2 percent (about a -0.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP increased by 3.9 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of this year, down from 5.7 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Australia declined in November, and its six-month growth rate has moderated compared to the first half of 2011. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Australia continued its slightly rising trend, and its rate of growth has picked up since mid-2011. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that although current economic activity remains fairly solid, the economy is likely to grow at a more moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the sales to inventories ratio*, gross operating surplus*, rural goods exports, and share prices. Building approvals, yield spread, and money supply* declined in November.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in November, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 128.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the leading economic index increased 1.7 percent, and three of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in November. The increases – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in household gross disposable income*, retail trade, and industrial production*. Employed persons declined in November.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 119.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident economic index increased 1.4 percent, with all four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on January 19, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.