Global Business Cycle Indicators
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|Benchmark Revisions - January 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, November 22, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased slightly in September. A large gain in money supply* more than offset negative contributions from building approvals, stock prices, and rural goods exports. Between March and September this year, the leading economic index increased by 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), only slightly slower than the 0.7 percent growth (about a 1.3 percent annual rate) from September 2010 to March 2011. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been nearly balanced in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in September. All components in the coincident economic index advanced this month. Between March and September 2011, the coincident economic index increased by 0.3 percent (about a 0.7 percent annual rate), about the same as the 0.2 percent increase (about a 0.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP increased by 4.8 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2011, a sharp reversal from the contraction of 3.4 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of this year.
- The Conference Board LEI for Australia has been on an essentially flat trend since the beginning of this year, after growing strongly in 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Australia has also been rising very slowly this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that although downward risks remain, the economy is likely to continue expanding in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in September. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are money supply*, gross operating surplus*, and the sales to inventories ratio*. Building approvals, share prices, rural goods exports, and yield spread declined in September.
With the 0.1 percent increase in September, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 120.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in August and increased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the leading economic index increased 0.5 percent, and three of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in September. The increases – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in retail trade, employed persons, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 118.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in both August and July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident economic index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on November 21, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.