Global Business Cycle Indicators
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|Benchmark Revisions - January 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, October 25, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Australia increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged.
- The leading index increased in August for the sixth consecutive month, and real money supply was the strongest contributor to its gain. With August's increase, the growth rate of the leading index continued to fluctuate in the 3.0 to 4.0 percent range (annual rate). In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators continued to be widespread.
- The coincident index remained unchanged in August, but it is still on a slight upward trend which started in late 2005. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first half of 2006 (including a 1.3 percent rate in the second quarter), only slightly up from a 1.9 percent average annual rate over the previous two quarters. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the eight components in the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are money supply*, the (inverted) "medium-term" government bond yield, share prices, the sales to inventories ratio*, rural goods exports* and gross operating surplus*. Building approvals* and the yield spread declined in August.
With the 0.4 percent increase in August, the leading index now stands at 164 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and increased 0.5 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the leading index increased 2.4 percent, and six of the eight components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components in the coincident index increased in August. The increases — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — occurred in employed persons, household gross disposable income* and industrial production*. The (inverted) unemployment rate declined in August. Retail trade was unchanged.
The coincident index now stands at 119.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with four of the five components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 90.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on October 25, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.