Global Business Cycle Indicators
Data not available at this time.
|Benchmark Revisions - January 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, November 22, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Australia increased 0.3 percent, while the coincident index declined 0.2 percent in September.
- The leading index increased again in September for the eighth consecutive month. The leading index has been growing at about a 4.0 to 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months, well above the 1.0-2.0 percent range through the first quarter of 2005. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators continued to be widespread.
- The coincident index fell slightly in September, offsetting the equally small gain in August, and it has been essentially flat since June. Real GDP growth picked up to a 3.7 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005 (including a 5.2 percent rate in the second quarter), from the 1.8 percent average growth rate in 2004. The continued strength in the leading index in recent months suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Four of the eight components in the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are money supply*, share prices, the sales to inventories ratio*, and gross operating surplus*. The (inverted) “medium-term” government bond yield, building approvals*, rural goods exports*, and yield spread declined in September.
With the 0.3 percent increase in September, the leading index now stands at 160.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.4 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the leading index increased 3.3 percent, and seven of the eight components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the five components in the coincident index increased in September. The increases - in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – occurred in household gross disposable income* and industrial production*. Employed persons, the (inverted) unemployment rate, and retail trade declined in September.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in September, the coincident index now stands at 118.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and was unchanged in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with all five components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. ET on November 21, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.