Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 16, 2014
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Korea remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea was flat in November. Improvements in letter of credit arrivals, exports and machinery orders were offset by declines in the remaining components of the index. Despite no change this month, the leading economic index increased by 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) between May and November 2013, sharply up from its decline of 1.1 percent (about a -2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, rose slightly this month, with widespread strength among most of the components. Between May and November 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate), much faster than the 0.2 percent increase (about a 0.3 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for Korea was unchanged after three months of consecutive gains, but its six-month change has strengthened and is at its highest rate since May 2011. In addition, The CEI for Korea edged up in November, and its six-month growth rate has accelerated compared to earlier this year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest continuing economic growth, which may even pickup slightly, in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were letter of credit arrivals, real exports FOB and value of machinery orders. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, private construction orders, and stock prices.
The Conference Board LEI for Korea remained unchanged in November and now stands at 123.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 2.2 percent in October and increased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading economic index increased 2.2 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors– in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were total employment and monthly cash earnings*. The wholesale and retail sales component declined, while industrial production remained unchanged in November.
With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 117.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the coincident economic index increased 1.5 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on January 14, 2014.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.