Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, December 12, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Korea increased 1.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Korea increased 0.7 percent in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased again in October, with value of machinery orders and exports making the largest positive contributions. The leading economic index grew by 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate) between April and October 2013, a reversal from the small contraction of 0.2 percent (about a -0.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, rose also this month. Between April and October 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate), faster than the 0.3 percent increase (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at 4.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2013, slightly down from 4.5 percent growth (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI for Korea has risen in each of the last four months, after declining for three consecutive months. As a result, its six-month change has rebounded sharply, but remains volatile. The CEI for Korea rose in October, and its six-month growth rate has improved compared to earlier this year. The most recent improvements in the composite indexes suggest continuing economic growth in the near term and may even be early signs of a slight pickup.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in October. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were value of machinery orders, real exports FOB, private construction orders, stock prices, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. Letter of credit arrivals* contributed negatively this month.
With the 1.6 percent increase in October, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 123.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in September and increased 0.7 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading economic index increased 1.8 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in October. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the wholesale and retail sales component, industrial production, and monthly cash earnings*. Total employment declined in October.
With the 0.7 percent increase in October, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 118.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.4 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the coincident economic index increased 1.0 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on December 11, 2013.
The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. The letter of credit arrivals is forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.