Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, August 15, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea declined 1.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea increased 0.2 percent in June.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea fell in June for the third consecutive month. The inverted bond yield, stock prices, and exports all made large negative contributions to the index. With this month’s decrease, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index continued to decline, to -2.1 percent (about a -4.1 percent annual rate) during the first half of 2013, a sharp reversal from the increase of 1.2 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become much more widespread than the strengths in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in June. Despite the small gain, the coincident economic index declined by 0.2 percent (about a -0.3 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending June 2013, down from the increase of 0.6 percent (about a 1.2 percent annual rate) during the second half of 2012. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators were somewhat balanced in the last six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 4.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2013, up from the 3.4 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
- The LEI for Korea has declined in five out of six months this year. As a result, the six-month change in the index has continued to fall further into negative territory, with widespread weaknesses among the leading indicators. Meanwhile, the CEI for Korea increased slightly in June, but its six-month change remains negative. Taken together, the recent weaknesses in both the LEI and CEI continue to suggest that the rate of economic expansion is likely to slow in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Only one of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in June. The positive contributor was the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, stock prices, letter of credit arrivals, value of machinery orders, real exports FOB, and private construction orders.
With the 1.1 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 118.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in May and declined 0.7 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading economic index decreased 2.1 percent, with two of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in June. The positive contributors – in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were total employment and industrial production. The wholesale and retail sales component and monthly cash earnings* declined in June.
With the 0.2 percent increase in June, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 116.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the coincident economic index decreased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. (ET) on August 14, 2013.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.