Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, February 14, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea decreased 0.2 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea was unchanged in December following three consecutive monthly gains. Positive contributions from letter of credit arrivals and value of machinery orders were offset by a large negative contribution from private construction orders. The leading economic index increased by 1.3 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) in the second half of 2012, up from the decline of 0.4 percent (about a -0.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses during the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in December. In the second half of 2012, the coincident economic index grew by 0.9 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), moderately slower than the 1.2 percent increase (about a 2.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths among the coincident indicators were very widespread, with all components advancing in the last six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the last quarter of 2012, up from 0.2 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
- The LEI for Korea remained unchanged after increasing in the previous three months, and its six-month change has picked up in the second half of 2012 compared to the first half of the year. Meanwhile, the CEI for Korea fell slightly in December, but its six-month growth rate has remained fairly steady during the last quarter of the year. Taken together, both the LEI and CEI suggest that the current rate of economic expansion is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in December. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were letter of credit arrivals, value of machinery orders, stock prices, and real exports FOB. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were private construction orders, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds.
After remaining unchanged in December, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 121.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in November and increased 0.6 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading economic index increased 1.3 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in December. The positive contributors – in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were industrial production and monthly cash earnings*. The wholesale and retail sales component and total employment declined in December.
With the 0.2 percent increase in December, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 117.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in November and decreased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the coincident economic index increased 0.9 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on February 13, 2013.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.