Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, November 15, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea increased 1.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea increased 0.4 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased sharply in September following five consecutive monthly declines. Large gains in the index of inventories to shipments (inverted) and machinery orders more than offset negative contributions from private construction orders and letter of credit arrivals. Despite this month’s increase, the leading economic index contracted by 1.7 percent (about a -3.4 percent annual rate) between March and September 2012, a sharp reversal from the 1.8 percent increase (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in September. Between March and September 2012, the coincident economic index grew by 0.8 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate), slower than the 1.7 percent increase (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2012, down slightly from 1.1 percent growth (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI for Korea rebounded this month following five consecutive declines. However, its six-month growth rate remains negative. Meanwhile, The CEI for Korea also increased in September, and its six-month growth rate has become positive after briefly turning negative last month. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components continue to suggest that the rate of economic growth is likely to remain slow in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in September. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, value of machinery orders, real exports FOB, stock prices, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. Negative contributors were private construction orders and letter of credit arrivals.
With the 1.2 percent increase in September, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 120.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in August and declined 0.4 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading economic index decreased 1.7 percent, with two of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in September. The positive contributors– in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were total employment, the wholesale and retail sales component, industrial production, and monthly cash earnings*.
With the 0.4 percent increase in September, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 118.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on November 14, 2012.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.