Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 12, 2012
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Korea declined 0.9 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea declined in November, the fourth decline in the last six months. Large negative contributions from private construction orders, the index of inventories to shipment (inverted), and stock prices more than offset a gain in value of machinery orders this month. With the decline in October, the leading economic index fell by 1.9 percent (about a -3.8 percent annual rate) between May and October 2011, sharply down from the increase of 2.7 percent (about a 5.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in November. All coincident indicators except total employment advanced this month. With the small gain in November, the coincident economic index increased by 0.9 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) between May and November 2011, down from the 2.2 percent increase (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter this year, slightly slower than the 3.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea has been on a downward trend since early 2011, and its six-month growth rate has turned negative since September. Meanwhile, the six month growth rate of The Conference Board CEI for Korea has also moderated since mid-2011. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue growing in the near term, but the risk for slower growth is rising.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors were value of machinery orders and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. The negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were private construction orders, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, stock prices, real exports FOB, and letter of credit arrivals.
With the 0.9 percent decrease in November, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 119.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and declined 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading economic index decreased 1.9 percent, with two of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors– in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were industrial production, the wholesale and retail sales component, and monthly cash earnings*. Total employment declined in November.
With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 115.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in October and decreased 0.8 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the coincident economic index increased 0.9 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on January 10, 2012.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.