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Benchmark Revisions - September 2005

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Released: Monday, June 13, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for Korea declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ®(CEI) for Korea also declined 0.3 percent in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Korea fell in April, the first decline since August 2010. Large negative contributions from real exports, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and the letter of credit arrivals more than offset positive contributions from stock prices and private construction orders. The six-month change in the leading economic index has moderated lately — to 3.7 percent (about a 7.6 percent annual rate) in the period through April 2011, but it remains higher than the growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators remained widespread over the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also declined in April. Industrial production and the wholesale and retail sales component both fell. Despite the decline in April, the coincident economic index increased 2.0 percent (about a 4.1 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through April 2011, up from the growth of 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months.  At the same time, real GDP grew at a 5.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, up from the 2.0 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2010.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Korea fell in April for the first time since August 2010, but its six-month growth rate is still higher than in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Korea also fell slightly in April, but its six-month growth rate has remained fairly steady so far. The current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic expansion should continue in the coming months, but the short-term path may be uneven.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in April. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were private construction orders, stock prices, value of machinery orders, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. Negative contributors include real exports FOB, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and letter of credit arrivals.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in April The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 122.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in March and remained unchanged in February. During the six-month span through April, the leading economic index increased 3.7 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in April. The positive contributor was total employment. Industrial production and the wholesale and retail sales component declined, while monthly cash earnings* remained unchanged in April.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 115.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in March and decreased 0.3 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the coincident economic index increased 2.0 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on June 10, 2011.

* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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