Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, January 12, 2011
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for Korea increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ®(CEI) for Korea increased 0.6 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in November, the third consecutive gain, following three consecutive decreases. Real exports FOB, the letter of credit arrivals, and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments continued to contribute largely to the gain in the index in November. Despite the increase this month, the six-month growth rate in the leading economic index has slowed, to 0.9 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) from May to November 2010, from the increase of 3.9 percent (about an 8.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nonetheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been somewhat balanced in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, increased in November following three consecutive declines. Industrial production and the wholesale and retail sales component increased sharply this month. The coincident economic index grew by 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through November 2010, down from the increase of 1.5 percent (about a 3.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, slower than the growth of 5.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter and 8.8 percent annual rate during the first quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea has bounced back in the three months through November. However, its six-month growth rate continued to slow compared to the first half of 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in November after declining for three months, but it is also on a slowing upward trend. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic growth will likely be modest in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were real exports FOB, letter of credit arrivals, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and stock prices. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) yield of government public bonds and private construction orders. Value of machinery orders was unchanged in November.
With the 0.7 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 118.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.1 percent in October and increased 1.0 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading economic index increased 0.9 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors– in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were industrial production and the wholesale and retail sales component. Total employment declined, while monthly cash earnings* remained unchanged in November.
With the 0.6 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 113.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in October and decreased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on January 11, 2011.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.