Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, August 16, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.8 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in June.
- The leading index increased sharply again in June, the third consecutive increase. Letter of credit arrivals and value of machinery orders were the largest contributors offsetting the weakness in stock prices in June. With this month's increase, the growth of the leading index continued to fluctuate around a 6.0 percent annual rate in recent months. The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have also been somewhat balanced in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in June, and continued to be on a slight upward trend despite its short-term volatility. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 4.1 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2006 (including a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter), down from the 6.7 percent average rate in the second half of 2005. The current behavior in the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were letter of credit arrivals, value of machinery orders, private construction orders, and real exports FOB. Stock prices, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds declined in June.
With the 0.8 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 154.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 3.2 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were industrial production, monthly cash earnings, the wholesale and retail sales component, and total employment.
With the 0.4 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 163.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and increased 0.7 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the coincident index increased 1.2 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) on August 15, 2006.
* The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board's estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.