Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, March 14, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.7 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.5 percent in January.
- The leading index increased again in January for the fourth consecutive month, and December's gain was revised up because of the data revision in the letter of credit arrivals component. With January’s gain, the leading index has been growing at about a 5.0 – 6.0 percent annual rate in recent months, and the strength in the leading index has become more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index increased in January following a small decline in December. The coincident index has been on an upward trend since mid-2004 and its growth has picked up slightly at the end of 2005. At the same time, real GDP grew at an average 7.6 percent annual rate in the second half of 2005, including a 7.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2005. The continued widespread strength in the leading index suggests that economic growth is likely to remain strong in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Six of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were letter of credit arrivals, real exports FOB, stock prices, private construction orders, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipment. Value of machinery orders declined in January.
With the 0.7 percent increase in January, the leading index now stands at 151.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in December and increased 0.8 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading index increased 2.8 percent, with six of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. Industrial production, total employment, and monthly cash earnings increased, while the wholesale and retail sales component declined in January.
With the 0.5 percent increase in January, the coincident index now stands at 162.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in December and increased 1.3 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the coincident index increased 1.6 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on March 13, 2006.
Notes: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.