Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, February 9, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.5 percent, while the coincident index decreased 0.4 percent in December.
- The leading index increased again in December following a large gain in November. The stock price index and machinery orders components continued to be the main contributors to December’s gain. The leading index has been growing steadily at about a 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, but this is still below the 7.0-8.0 percent rate through the first quarter of 2005. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been balanced in the period from June to December.
- The coincident index fell in December following a large increase in November. December's decrease is due to declines in industrial production and total employment. At the same time, real GDP grew at an average 7.6 percent annual rate in the second half of 2005 (including a 7.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2005), up from the 3.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy should continue expanding in the near term, but perhaps somewhat less rapidly than in the second half of 2005.
Leading Indicators. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, value of machinery orders, real exports FOB, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. The (inverted) index of inventories to shipment and letter of credit arrivals declined, while private construction orders held steady in December.
With the 0.5 percent increase in December, the leading index now stands at 149.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in November and was unchanged in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading index increased 1.4 percent, with three of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Only one of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The wholesale and retail sales component increased, while industrial production and total employment declined. Monthly cash earnings held steady in December.
With the 0.4 percent decrease in December, the coincident index now stands at 161.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.4 percent in November and remained unchanged in October. During the six-month span through December, the coincident index increased 1.2 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on February 8, 2006.
Notes: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.