Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 12, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.6 percent and the coincident index increased 1.3 percent in November.
- The leading index increased again in November following an essentially flat period from August to October. With November’s gain, the leading index has been growing at about a 3.0 percent annual rate, but this is still below the 7.0-8.0 percent rate through the first quarter of 2005. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread.
- The coincident index increased sharply in November and this pick up was widespread among the components. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to an 8.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005, up from the 3.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005. The behavior in the leading index in recent months suggests that although the strong economic growth reported in the third quarter of 2005 is unlikely to be sustained in the near term, the economy should continue to grow at a moderate but steady rate.
Leading Indicators. Five of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were value of machinery orders, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipment, stock prices, real exports FOB, and private construction orders. Letter of credit arrivals and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds declined in November.
With the 0.6 percent increase in November, the leading index now stands at 148.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.5 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were industrial production, the wholesale and retail sales component, total employment, and monthly cash earnings.
With the 1.3 percent increase in November, the coincident index now stands at 161.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the coincident index increased 2.1 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on January 11, 2006.
Notes: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.