Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 13, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.2 percent, while the coincident index declined 0.1 percent in October.
- The leading index increased slightly in October, and the previous two months’ declines were revised up to no change and a small increase. With October's small gain, the leading index continued to grow at a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate, down from the 4.0 to 5.0 percent rate in the second quarter of 2005 and the 7.0-8.0 percent rate through the first quarter of 2005. A large increase in the letter of credit arrivals was the main contributor to this month's increase, and the strength among the leading indicators has become less widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index declined slightly in October after staying essentially flat in the previous three months. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to an 8.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005, up from the 3.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy should continue to grow in the near term, but perhaps at a somewhat more moderate rate than reported in the first three quarters of 2005.
Leading Indicators.Three of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were letter of credit arrivals, stock prices, and real exports FOB. Value of machinery orders, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipment, and private construction orders declined in October.
With the 0.2 percent increase in October, the leading index now stands at 147.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 1.7 percent, with three of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were total employment and industrial production. The wholesale and retail sales component declined, while monthly cash earnings remained changed in October.
With the 0.1 percent decline in October, the coincident index now stands at 159.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the coincident index increased 1.1 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on December 12, 2005.
Notes: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.