Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2005|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, October 11, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea declined 0.2 percent, while the coincident index remained unchanged in August.
- The leading index declined slightly in August, following three consecutive increases. The leading index has been growing at a 4.0 – 5.0 percent annual rate in recent months, and the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been somewhat balanced. This is an improvement from small declines in mid-2004, but it is still below the 7.0-8.0 percent growth through the first quarter of 2005.
- The coincident index was unchanged in August. The coincident index has been on a steady and moderately rising trend since mid-2003. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 5.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005, up from the 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter and the 3.6 percent average growth over the previous four quarters. The recent behavior of the leading index is consistent with continued moderate economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Three of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, real exports FOB, and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipment. Private construction orders, letter of credit arrivals, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds declined in August, while value of machinery orders remained unchanged.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in August, the leading index now stands at 146.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.5 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the leading index increased 1.9 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were the wholesale and retail sales component and monthly cash earnings. Industrial production and total employment declined in August.
Holding steady in August, the coincident index now stands at 159.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.7 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on October 7, 2005.
Notes: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.