Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, November 8, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for Korea increased 0.2 percent in September.
- The leading index increased slightly in September, and the previously reported no change in August was revised up to a small gain. The stock price index was the major contributor to this month’s increase, and the recent weakness in the leading index remains widespread.
- The small increases in the leading index in recent months are an improvement from a slight decline in the second quarter, but the leading index is still weak when compared to the very rapid growth through the first quarter of 2004. It is still too early to conclude that the recent weakness has ended.
- The coincident index increased in September following small declines in the previous two months. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 2.7 percent average rate (annualized) during the first half of 2004, down from the very strong growth in the second half of 2003. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that this sluggish rate of economic growth is likely to persist in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Five of the eight components that make up the leading index decreased in September. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were authorized building permits, letter of credit arrivals, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, real exports FOB, and monthly hours worked*. Stock prices, the (inverted) value of machinery orders, and yield of government public bonds increased in September.
With the 0.2 percent increase in September, the leading index now stands at 122.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and decreased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading index decreased 0.2 percent, with two of the eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in September. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to smallest – were total employment, industrial production, and wholesale and retail sales. The (inverted) unemployment rate was unchanged in September.
With the 0.2 percent increase in September, the coincident index now stands at 111.7 (1990=100). This index decreased 0.1 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on November 5, 2004.
Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are monthly hours worked. There is no forecasted series in the coincident index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.