Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, September 17, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.2 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.5 percent in July.
- July’s small increase keeps the leading index on a moderate upward trend from the low reached in March. The strength among the components of the leading index since March has also been widespread.
- The pickup in the leading index since March is consistent with the economy increasing at a moderate rate in the near term. Real GDP did decline slightly in the first quarter of 2003, but the leading indicators suggest that this is likely to be just a temporary pause.
Leading Indicators. Three of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, authorized building permits*, and value of machinery orders. The negative contributors – from the larger negative contributor to the smaller – were (inverted) yield of government public bonds, (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, monthly hours worked*, letter of credit arrivals*, and real exports.
The leading index now stands at 118.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index held steady in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.4 percent, with four of its eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in July. The negative contributors to the index - from the larger negative contributor to the smaller – were industrial production, wholesale and retail sales, and the (inverted) unemployment rate. The positive contributor to the index was total employment.
With a decrease of 0.5 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 110.5 (1990=100). This index was flat in June and decreased 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the coincident index decreased 1.3 percent, with none of its components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on September 16, 2003.
*Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are monthly hours worked, letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing, and authorized building permits, new floor space.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.